Everscale Partner
Analysts say, Bitcoin started the week with breaking the $ 11,500 resistance, but what can we expect from it in the coming days, and what will the price depend on?
U.S. elections could send dollar into 2018
The Democratic victory does not bode well for one of the most important macroeconomic indicators, namely the US dollar index (DXY).
On October 12, Goldman Sachs warned that Joe Biden, entering the White House, could scare the markets so badly that DXY would drop to a 2018 low.
Bitcoin is showing a pronounced inverse correlation with the DXY, so the dollar index updating its lows will be a holiday for cryptocurrency hodlers. In August, Bitcoin’s maximum of $ 12,500 was reached in sync with the DXY falling to 92 points. In 2018, the index fell to 89, which is only 4% lower than its current value.
The introduction of the coronavirus vaccine will hinder rather than strengthen the dollar.
“The dollar is in danger of weakening, and we see the relatively low chances of the most positive outcome for the dollar — a victory for Mr Trump, combined with a significant delay in vaccinations,” write strategists at Goldman.
Dynamics of the US dollar index over 6 months
Europe under the yoke of Brexit and coronavirus.
With a second wave of coronavirus roaming Europe, various countries are again pushing for lockdown-style measures. Against this background, negotiations with the UK on Brexit add to the headache, which so far have not been crowned with consensus.
In the US, politicians have still not been able to agree on a new stimulus package that Americans are eagerly awaiting after Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin promised to send them another check for $ 1200.
Despite all this negativity, the stock market is growing, with China leading, where the yuan is weakening, and investors are full of hope for the positive effect of President Xi Jinping’s imminent speech.
Dynamics of the bitcoin rate and the S&P 500 index over three months
Bitcoin’s fundamentals are in great shape.
Bitcoin hashrate hit a new high last weekend, suggesting more computing power is being allocated to mining than ever before.
According to the monitoring resources of the Bitinfocharts and Blockchain network, the hash rate reached 155 exahashes per second (EH / s). At the same time, 130 EH / s is 10 times more than the hash rate, which was registered at the moment when the price reached a historical maximum of $ 20,000 in December 2017.
There is a popular theory that reaching a new maximum hash rate and increasing the complexity of the Bitcoin network will lead to an increase in its price.
Bitcoin’s fair price adjusted for its hashrate is around $ 32,000 per coin right now.
Bitcoin hash rate during the last week:
Bitcoin investor sentiment is gradually improving, according to the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index.
On Monday, the index was at around 52, breaking the 50 level for the first time since September 21, which allows us to classify investor sentiment as “neutral”.
Dynamics of the fear and greed index over 3 months:
Analysts predict further growth.
For many analysts, the $ 11,000 zone represented key resistance. The breakthrough through this zone came in spite of a number of negative news, in particular the pursuit of the derivatives giant BitMEX in the United States.
“We will go much higher. Then don’t say you weren’t warned, ”our colleague, renowned analyst Vijay Boiapati, tweeted on Sunday.
According to a survey conducted on Twitter by Michael van de Poppe, 62% of nearly 5,000 respondents expect Bitcoin to hit $ 12,000 rather than fall to $ 10,700.
